Jonathan CAVE
RAND Europe and University of Warwick
Newtonweg, 1, 2333 CP Leiden, The Netherlands

Abstract. TERRA2000 combines models and scenario analyses to investigate the sustainability and policy implications of the unfolding global networked knowledge society (GNKS). Human capital is a central theme of this research; this paper frames the issues, identifies the policy concerns and presents exemplary analyses of two central features of human capital in the GNKS: networking and complementarity. The knowledge explosion has potential rebound effects, e.g. cheaper transmission increases personal costs of dealing with the resulting flood of information. Human capital investments of different types drive productivity growth; returns driveincome growth and distribution. Unlike physical capital, human capital isn’t easilybound by contingent contracts and surely depreciates unless used. Supply-orientatedpolicies had mixed success and unforeseen consequences. Rapid change calls foreducation favouring self-determination, transferable skills and incentives to share knowledge. Demand-side polices can improve use of existing skills and articulation of skill needs. Networking and complementarity raise new issues and profoundly affect the way policies can be used to meet the coming challenges.
Download Paper pdf file 181kb

Barry B. HUGHES
RAND Europe and the University of Denver
Denver, Colorado 80208, USA
Tel: +01 303 4801965; Fax: +01 303 8714566; Email: bhughes@du.edu

Abstract. TERRA2000 combines models and scenario analyses to investigate the sustainability and policy implications of the unfolding global networked knowledge society (GNKS). The TERRA2000 project uses an integrated modelling system called IFs for TERRA2000 in support of its analysis within and across three themes: human capital, growth and equity, and environmental sustainability. Here we identify some of the elements of human capital analysis and explore the leverage that policy makers have with respect to enhancing "the knowledge, skills, competencies and attributes embodied in individuals that [in turn] facilitate the creation of personal, social, and economic well-being." Specifically, we look at the potential for expanding the knowledge base through R&D expenditures, at increasing basic human skills and competencies through education and health programs, at increasing the supply of human capital through migration, and at increasing the diffusion of knowledge, skills, and competencies through electronic networking. In general, our early exploration suggests that greatest near-term leverage may lie with spreading the benefits of electronic networking throughout the economy, that considerable longer-term leverage lies with education and especially R&D, and that migration has mixed impact in the shorter and longer-term.
Download Paper pdf file 186kb

Ildiko TULBURE
Technical University of Clausthal, Graupenstr. 3, D-38678, Clausthal-Zellerfeld, Germany
Tel: +49-5323-723123; Fax: +49-5323-722203; Email: Ildiko.Tulbure@itm.tu-clausthal.de

Abstract. In this paper the most relevant question related to the emerging information society will be touched: Does the Information Society assure per se the sustainability of our society? What are the sensible factors, which will play an important role in this context? One very important aspect related to the use of ICT is the environmental one. The danger is that so-called rebound-effects could occur under certain conditions, which could have a negative impact on the environment. In order to analyse possible environmental effects of different IT-applications an integrative model will be presented. Different scenarios will be developed by using the model and evaluated for the conditions of Germany in this first stage. Two IT-applications will be considered: on-line-informing and e-working. Methodological aspects in the field of integrative modelling will be also discussed.
Download Paper pdf file 175kb

Jari Kaivo-oja, Ira Ahokas, Pentti Malaska and Jyrki Luukkanen

Abstract: In this paper a Work Profile study is presented. In the study trend analyses of occupational structures in U.S., Japan and EU-15 are analysed and compared with each other. Authors operationalise so called Swyt-Malaska model for United States, Japan and EU-15. The operationalisation is presented for the entire workforce, male workforce and female workforce. The study shows that there are significant differences between the occupational structures of U.S., Japan and EU-15. An important finding of the study is that male and female occupational structures follow different trajectories when Swyt-Malaska model system is operationalised to be sex-specific. The empirical analysis covers the years 1980-2000.

In the end of the paper there are brief outlines of some policy relevant analyses, which can be done on the basis Swyt-Malaska approach. Authors have collected data files on the basis of ILO database. The current data covers all the OECD countries. The research work has been carried out within EU/IST Terra2000 project.
Download Paper pdf file 141kb

Stephen Simmons
Addico Cornix Ltd
Tregannick, Sancreed
Penzance
Cornwall TR20 8QW, UK
Tel: + 44 1736 332736 Fax: + 44 1736 334702
e-mail: srs@cornix.co.uk

Abstract: Among the anticipated benefits of an Information Society or a Networked Knowledge Society, the benefit to sustainability of less material intensive e-services and e-products has long been listed but little evidenced. Progressive gains in eco-efficiency (the so-called Dematerialisation of Production) have been, and continue to be, achieved, but the step-change improvements anticipated (the Immaterialisation of Consumption) have not (or, if they have, have not been recognised or accepted as such). As with the similarly anticipated productivity step-change, the figures seemed not to support the expectations. The ASSIST project addressed this 'stalled' topic of immaterialisation. The theoretical understanding of the topic was reviewed in depth, including sociological and economic theories of consumption, as was the place of Immaterialisation in theories of Sustainable Development. This culminated in a new paradigm of Immaterialisation as a 'switch', and a consequent new understanding of its operation and effect. This was tested against (limited) current examples and also short-term future scenarios, demonstrating its validity and workability. The outcome was a proposed 'Immaterialisation Action Plan' offering, for the first time, the ability to reinvestigate this stalled topic and deliver the long predicted benefits.
This paper briefly summarises the new paradigm of Immaterialisation before discussing in more detail the implications for future development (including particularly e-work), and the part to be played by research in e.g. 6FP in the synergistic triple alignment of technological, commercial, and sustainability imperatives.
Download Paper pdf file 150kb