Scenario Produced in Terra

Scenarios provide a common basis for discussion and analysis, to ensure that progress towards understanding the strength and policy implications of the propositions is at the same time logically consistent, reasonably comprehensive, comprehensible and engaging for stakeholders, calibrated to real data where possible, appropriately sensitive to both hard and soft data and relevant to policy issues. They are thus a tool for exploring knowledge and improving coordination. TERRA scenarios are used in various ways. They are used as a framing device for describing the current situation, identifying trends and possible interventions, and making visible important criteria. This is particularly true of the Human Capital scenarios, in which the level of description is primarily numerical and based on explicit computations in order to provide a sense of the scope of the issues considered, quantify the direct and side effects of various specific policies and aid the search for attractive combinations of policies. The Equity and Growth scenarios are more explicitly laid out in ‘scenario space’ along two critical dimensions, but also make use of dominant relations computations to calibrate the ‘storyline’ and the powers of the actors. The Information Age Sustainability scenarios are described in terms of welfare and environmental stress dimensions, and scenarios developed along the lines of feasible trend extrapolation.

A scenario is a partial description of a set of possible futures based on a description of the status quo ante, a set of actors (with motivations, powers, and information), a system (with well-defined boundaries and mechanisms), and specific dimensions along which it is described or tracked. The narrative core of the scenario constitutes an implied storyline about future evolution, which may include branches and critical uncertainties. Scenarios should be described in concrete terms, be internally and logically consistent, and illustrate the major issues. As predictors of the future, their only common feature is that they are false in detail. As a result, multiple scenarios are preferable to single ones, and their construction is not only non-trivial, but may prove to be more important than the end result. Ultimately, therefore, they must be experienced interactively.
The inclusion in all scenarios of important factors whose values are known or can be predicted is important to ensure acceptance and relevance. Less important known factors can be included to make the scenario seem more concrete and relevant. The factors that are at the same time uncertain and important define the dimensions of ‘scenario space’ – they differentiate the scenarios from one another. Uncertain factors of minor or narrow importance are included to give colour and life to the scenario and to serve as the springboard for ‘weak signal’ analysis of developments whose likelihood and importance can be imagined but not assessed.

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