Introduction

This section differs materially from its predecessors in that it concerns itself with the possibilities of discontinuities between the future and the present. The three preceding sections have based their argumentation on an understanding of the past and on long data series, which are essentially historical. It is very frequently (even, perhaps, generally) the case that yesterday and today provide us with the best guide that we have to tomorrow. However, change is also eternal: there are always ‘shocks’ against which our systems need to be resilient, and there are always large systematic changes which run as it were orthogonally to our present understanding (the ICT industry itself would have been such a change as seen in the middle decades of the last century) whose early manifestations may seem currently to be either trivial or irrelevant, but yet which may be enormously significant in the future. Equally, of course, such ‘orthogonal’ change may prove to be of no consequence. As is frequently said of advertising, 90% is of no consequence and only 10% is useful – but we don’t know which 10%. Weak Signals have something of that quality.

It is necessary, therefore, to keep ‘half an eye’ on such developments: this is the purpose of monitoring ‘weak signals’. Weak Signals question both the extent of our understanding (do we know enough?); and also the validity of our understanding (is what we know of any relevance?). The monitoring of Weak Signals is thus intended to overcome the risk that we only ever draw conclusions that can be expressed within the language of our existing understanding and (historic) knowledge.
Among the topics where we may possibly detect ‘Weak Signals’ of coming change are:

WSF #1: Welfare saturation

Description

There is an implicit link between GDP/capita; welfare; and consumption. These are rather loosely assumed to follow trajectories that are at least sub-parallel.

However, many commentators assert that welfare has become de-coupled from GDP increases and is static or declining in many developed economies . That assertion can, however, be read as no more than a re-definition of welfare in non-monetary forms. Nonetheless, new data shows that some basic consumptions (e.g. energy) ) may cease to rise with GDP/capita after a certain point . Taken together, these two related possibilities might be taken to mean that there exists a level of GDP/capita (not necessarily fixed over time) that represents ‘Welfare Saturation’, beyond which neither welfare nor certain elements of consumption increase with increasing income.

Potential Implications

The existence of a concept of welfare saturation would introduce a number of consequent changes in perception in different domains:

Economic

At the point of saturation, the rational buying behaviour of homo economicus would apparently change – but to what? Behaviour seems to derive from values and beliefs – so what changes here? The aspiration element in motivation must somehow be affected – but how? And what new buying patterns replace the old? Does this accentuate (or even in part account for) the shift from goods to services?

Sociological

Money may never have bought happiness, but nonetheless the fallacy seemed to work for many people. If happiness levels peak and then either remain static or fall, does life become a certain route to disappointment? Is the prospect of some sort of ‘betterment’ a necessary part of the condition of man (as in ‘life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness’) or is stasis a comfortable state (as in ‘liberté, fraternité, égalité’)?

Environmental

If there is an upper bound to the consumption of energy per capita, then there is an implied upper bound to e.g. the creation of pollution. This is superficially a good thing; but then will that upper bound become, in its turn, the accepted norm when developed nations negotiate on emissions? And what (presumably immaterial, or at least less material) consumptions will occur post-saturation? The Rebound from immaterialisation is an income effect, so a multiplier on the original situation of excess income. Does the excess income become meaningful investment? Or support more but different pollution?

Cultural

Anecdotally, interest in eastern, non-material, belief systems is on the increase in developed nations. Do cultural alternatives relate to welfare saturation and post-materialism? Hardt and Negri postulate an introverted, post-material dialectic as a necessary new foundation for political philosophy. Marxism has long seemed to be dead, but perhaps capitalism is following it: if Hardt and Negri are the best guides we have to the future, then politics as a whole is in trouble.

Tracking Indicators

Many indicators exist for welfare – possibly too many. ISEW seems directly relevant. Energy use is also widely tracked. The interest here, however, is at the margin – at the moment of welfare saturation, if it exists. Tailoring an indicator for the purpose would involve hypothecating post-saturation activities (e.g. an increased interest in spirituality) and tracking it (e.g. the growth of the ‘spiritual’ sector).

Related Phenomena

There is a strong link here to the second entry in the WSF file – The Fifth Wave. If, as weak signals may indicate, the Fifth Wave were indeed concerned with ‘The Extensions of Man’ in the intellectual, sensual, and spiritual senses then this would tend to support the ‘Welfare saturation’ hypothesis. The third WSF entry, The New Subjectivity of Money, may also relate through the concept of hedonic Indexing if (as some more enthusiastic protagonists claim) the New Economy is actually the fallacious result of an erroneous belief in the existence of Welfare increases that have not already occurred. Much is open to dispute, but there is enough activity to demonstrate a ‘Weak Signal’ here.

Observed Signals (in the press etc)

For a view on the overt search for happiness as welfare saturation approaches, see Diane Coyle’s article (concluding ‘the dismal science of economics is turning cheerful’) the Independent (UK) 28.03.2001. See also the references, particularly the figures in the Shell Scenarios.

WSF #2: The fifth wave

Description

The Information Society is not infrequently taken to be the 4th Wave of Kondratieff (or sometimes the 5th, depending on the manner of counting) . The waves originally postulated by Kondratieff seemed to have a period of about 60 years, but more recently it has appeared (e.g. to Schumpeter and others) that the wave length may be decreasing so that the 4th Wave may only have a life of perhaps 40 years or perhaps even less. At the extremes of the range of foreshortened predicted figures, the 4th Wave could trough at about 2020 - and could already have peaked. If that is the case, and if we are already in the decline phase of the Information Society Wave, what might be the clues available to us about the nature of the forthcoming 5th Wave?

A Kondratieff Wave is no small phenomenon: the protagonists of Long Wave Theory see its influence in every aspect of life . Such a vast wave should already be visible, if only as a speck on the horizon. The 'core' of a wave has, in the past, lain in socio-technical development triggered by the coming to maturity of some aspect of scientific advance; it has directly affected the day-to-day life of the vast majority of individuals in developed nations; and it has dominated the economics of its day. Perhaps most significantly, one can (with full hindsight) see in each previous case the evidence that the wave was inevitably coming, everywhere in view but unrecognised as to its significance, even though each wave tends to prefigure the next long before the arrival of the wave concerned. What then do we see today that meets these criteria? What is it about today that prefigures tomorrow yet goes unrecognised?

McLuhan was fond of describing media technologies as being 'Extensions of Man'; television was an extension of our ability to see, for instance. McLuhan's 1951 vision of the then-coming 4th wave (made at or before the peak of the 4th wave) also offers clues about the 5th. Quite possibly the largest single business worldwide at the peak of the 4th wave was illicit pharmaceuticals (or 'recreational drugs'): a huge anomaly in the Information Society, but one which is effectively devoted to McLuhan's prosthetics: extensions to mans ability to imagine; to enjoy; to perform athletically etc. Perhaps even more surprisingly, elective surgery (a natural but more radical companion to elective medication) has become commonplace. The old prosthetics (spectacles were possibly the first consumer item to go beyond the essentials of life) have been monstrously extended - breasts and lips are enhanced, and stomachs and thighs reduced, as a commonplace. (For a scenario that features elective physical modification extensively see Gibson's Idoru ). Cloning and the bio-chemical revolution are potentially imminent; and Kurzweil foresees synaptic mapping as a long step on the road to a Nietschian Ubermensche . At the same time 'spirituality' - the New Age', alternative religions, meditation etc, have come to new prominence, and counselling and personal development are all around us.

There is at least some plausible evidence, therefore, that the 5th wave will be a further step on the road to the conquering of physicality - a further Extension of Man. (This would also chime neatly with the internalisation of the political dialectic foreseen by Hardt and Negri) .

Potential Implications

With previous Long Waves, Each new Wave has been additional and complementary to its predecessor, which declines only slowly. A half-period (perhaps 20 years) is likely to elapse before the full effects are realised.

Economic

Much of the existing activity in this sector is currently in the ‘Black Economy’, although ‘laundering’ allows some to appear as spurious increases in other sectors (the entertainment sector being apparently particularly favoured). It seems hardly possible that this situation can continue, but equally unlikely that a single over-night change will bring it totally into the visible economy. Filtering in over time will (perhaps) seem like growth, but no growth will be present. How will this affect the economy as a whole? Many factors already exist (see WSF #3) that allegedly give such spurious impressions of growth – is the Fifth wave merely a part of this new subjectivity of money?

Sociological

The ‘Extensions of Man’ in the Fifth Wave may possibly provide the new (replacement) focus for betterment as part of normative aspirations. If so, then perhaps Margaret Thatcher was right and there is (or at least will be) no such thing as society.

Environmental

Assuming that physical prosthetics are recyclable (as is the case with gold teeth) then ‘Extensions of Man’ may prove to be a benefit from an environmental standpoint. Previous Waves have often been marked by a physical monumentalism whose decline into less material values might result in reducing the ‘A’ factor in the I=PAT equivalence.

Cultural

The Fifth wave postulated would present most visibly in the Cultural sector: counter-Culture would prevail, but counter-Culture is very heterogeneous, fractured, sqabblesome thing. Seen as an overlay to existing cultures it would be anarchic but not necessarily destructive: the pre-existing cultures might survive almost unmodified.

Tracking Indicators

Despite its ‘black’ status, some good data sets exist to track illicit pharmaceuticals – seizures in particular. Elective (cosmetic) surgery is a trackable sector, as is that of social ’Counselling’

Related Phenomena

The ‘spiritual’ sector concept aligns with WSF1 (Welfare Saturation).

Observed Signals

Despite past avowals that narcotics trafficking in China had been eradicated, China now concedes that it’s been waging a losing battle against illicit drug use. Seizures of heroin and marijuana increased 34% and 137%, respectively, in 1998, and the number of addicts is estimated to have increased almost ten fold in the past decade. Rising unemployment and poverty due to the slowing economy and public sector reforms are considered partly to blame.

Ironically, in a country in which drug traffickers oftentimes face immediate execution after public trials, some restaurants are giving a nod to the drug culture by offering dishes seasoned with a few grains of opium .
Many more forward views are to be found on www.csf.colorado.edu/longwaves

WSF # 3: The new subjectivity of money

Description

Concepts of subjectivity are not easy to apply rigorously to money. However, during the time of the Bretton Woods Agreement, there was at least a wide general belief (true or not) that money could be regarded objectively.. From 1973 onwards, that view has been more and more replaced by a more subjective attitude. As a simplification for the purpose of argument, money has changed from being almost entirely objectively defined to being almost entirely subjectively defined, at least in public perception. There are analogies here with statics and dynamics; with the 1st and 2nd Laws of Thermodynamics; and perhaps most of all with the fundamental nature of Process as defined by Whitehead .

From such a viewpoint, the break from the Gold Standard in 1973 would represent the moment of change from the old paradigm (of spurious appearance of precise equivalence to a physical entity), to the new paradigm (of the mere description of activity). One might then anticipate some discontinuity in data using money as a measure, from around 1973 (allowing for some lag in the development of the new perception).

Potential Implications

Two different major factors would contribute to discontinuity in figures relating to the economy – the undermining of the statistical base and the knock-on effect of changed public perception on economic performance.

Economic

Purely because of the change in the statistical base, a progressive deviation between non-money based economic indicators (exergy use, for example) and money-based indicators (GDP, for example). (From this particular standpoint there is no particular reason to predict the direction of the deviation, only that one should exist). This, however is a technical issue: many efforts are made to eliminate such distortions (often accompanied by some controversy) – MFP is one such mechanism, hedonic price adjustment another. Both have specific significance for TERRA and for the IST sector.

Sociological

This is primarily an economic issue, but a (? Non-trivial) effect to be expected would be a growing divergence between public (i.e. anecdotal) views of the economy, and technical views of the same economy. There is some limited ‘soft’ evidence of this

Environmental

A further (? Non-trivial) effect to be expected would be a growing disparity between ‘achieved’ environmental impacts and those predicted by extrapolating economic growth.