CHALLENGES OF INFORMATION AGE SUSTAINABILITY
October 15, 2002

The policy of sustainable development, outlined for the first time in 1987 by the United Nations, aims to provide a macro-scale solution to the growing global environmental and societal problems and failures, such as increases in pollution, waste accumulation, decreasing biodiversity, increase in population, poverty of the majority of people and instability of developing countries to develop their economies. The natural capital of the environment and of natural resources is more threatened than ever by continued population and economic growth.  However, in the 30 years since the publication of “Limits to Growth”, the concerns have changed: We are not exhausting mineral resources and fossil fuels, but the impact of their use on the environment is becoming critical. Economic growth is still tightly linked to growth in resource use, and now contributes more to increased pressures than population growth itself.

We can conclude that the impact of humankind on nature has been recognised by now as being global and on an unprecedented scale. Climate change, the reduction of bio-diversity and the extinction of species are prime examples of new concerns. It is recognised that the ensuing global change is transforming the Earth in an irreversible manner. Meeting the challenge of sustainable development means that we can take steps to channel change in a harmless or less harmful direction in the face of irreversibility. There are also increasing concerns connected to the distribution of wealth. The process, where the rich get richer while the poor get poorer is still continuing. Globalisation in economic and financial markets seems to lead to a "winner takes all" situation where the reward of being ahead in a global society leads to unbeatable advances.

In the information age sustainability theme the aim of research is to analyse systemic relationships between knowledge society and the challenges of sustainable development. For the sustainability analysis Advanced Sustainability Analysis (ASA) framework is developed.

The ASA model enables many specific analyses in TERRA2000. Problem oriented analyses are provided concerning

  • Dematerialisation trends and scenario Immaterialisation trends and scenarios
  • Strategic Factor 4 & 10 analyses
  • Rebound effect analyses
  • Structural change towards sustainability
  • Endogenous growth and sustainability strategies
  • Automation dilemma and sustainability strategies
  • Welfare productivity of economic growth and
  • Problem oriented sustainability analyses of networking European knowledge societies.

Roy Amara (Amara, R. (1981) The Futures Fiels: Searching for Definitions and Boundaries. The Futurist XV (February), 25-29) has specified the paradigmatic features of the future research in the following three theses:

  1. The future is unpredictable. From this thesis follows that conceptions of future should be based on the description of possible paths of development. "What is possible/feasible?" is key question in future and foresight studies.
  2. The future is not predetermined. From this thesis follows that the possible alternatives of future and paths to them have to be studied carefully: "What is probable?" is key question in future and foresight studies.
  3. The choices have impacts on the future. From this follows that choices should be made between the alternatives and the realisation of the paths to the selected alternatives should be studied. "What is desirable?" is key question in future and foresight studies.
We can also add one key question to this list.
  1. In the societal discussion one quite important aspect of decision-making is different kinds of interests of people. People see the importance of things in different way. "What is important issue in the future? is key question in future and foresight studies.

Thus, we can conclude in many futures and foresight studies it would be useful to analyse:

  • Feasibility of future events, Probability of future events,
  • Desirability of future events, and
  • Importance of future events.

Typically, in futures oriented analysis, there are three kinds of analyses: (1) trend analyses, (2) scenario analyses and (3) weak signal analyses. All these foresight analyses give us information and knowledge concerning possible, probable and desirable futures in European policy arena.  TERRA2000 focus also strongly important policy questions.